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Clemson vs South Carolina prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Clemson
CLEM 44% win56% SC
23Projected29If CLEM upsets
vs
25Projected18If CLEM upsetsHome
Clemson Tigers
Record 4–3 · #69 in ratings
Away
South Carolina Gamecocks
Record 4–3 · #34 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Starts at 50, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | CLEM | SC | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 65 | 60 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up44%Clemson wins at home
At a neutral site35% ▼
Clemson: 1 win over a higher-rated team (North Carolina 28–20)
South Carolina: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Mississippi State 34–41)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Clemson won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- SC 24, CLEM 1775 games
- SC 27, CLEM 2070 games
- CLEM 24, SC 2069 games
- SC 24, CLEM 2068 games
- SC 20, CLEM 1761 games
- Power index
- 50 vs 76
- Projected
- SC favored
- Differential
- 2.4 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Clemson, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Clemson.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- South Carolina by 2.4
- Projected total
- 47.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.0%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- Clemson wins by 21+
- 6.1%
- South Carolina wins by 21+
- 11.1%
- Median score
- 23–24
- Model expectation
- 22.4–25
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Clemson wins, bars on the left are South Carolina wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Clemson offense vs South Carolina defenseOffense -4.2Defense +0.7Edge South Carolina: its defense is 4.9 points better than Clemson's offense.
South Carolina offense vs Clemson defenseOffense +5.1Defense +4.4Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Clemson | South Carolina | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.03 | 0.19 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.02 | 0.14 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 36.8% | 44.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 42.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.4 | 36.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3 | 25.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
