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Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State prediction
Kickoff Sat 1:00 PM CT, at Georgia State
CCU 31% win69% GAST
26Projected
vs
33ProjectedAway
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Record 2–5 · #98 in ratings
Home
Georgia State Panthers
Record 4–3 · #70 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 29 vs 50
- Projected
- GAST favored
- Differential
- 7.7 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Georgia State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 1:00 PM CT, at Georgia State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Georgia State by 7.7
- Projected total
- 58.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.0%
- Went to overtime
- 2.9%
- Coastal Carolina wins by 21+
- 3.6%
- Georgia State wins by 21+
- 20.8%
- Median score
- 24–33
- Model expectation
- 25.2–33
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Coastal Carolina wins, bars on the left are Georgia State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Georgia State 27, Coastal Carolina 2055 games
- Georgia State 30, Coastal Carolina 2755 games
- Georgia State 34, Coastal Carolina 2048 games
- Georgia State 37, Coastal Carolina 2048 games
- Georgia State 30, Coastal Carolina 2047 games
- Georgia State 34, Coastal Carolina 2747 games
Where the edges are
Coastal Carolina offense vs Georgia State defenseOffense -2.8Defense -3.7Even: neither side has a real edge.
Georgia State offense vs Coastal Carolina defenseOffense +3.9Defense -1.9Edge Georgia State: its offense is 5.8 points better than Coastal Carolina's defense.
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Georgia State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.13 | 0.24 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.5% | 47.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.9% | 39.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.1 | 35.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9 | 26.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.