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Coastal Carolina vs Liberty prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CCU 20% win80% LIB
17Projected
vs
30ProjectedNeutral site
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Record 2–5 · #98 in ratings
Neutral site
Liberty Flames
Record 6–1 · #26 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 29 vs 82
- Projected
- LIB favored
- Differential
- 12.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Liberty by 12.2
- Projected total
- 47.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 32.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- Coastal Carolina wins by 21+
- 1.3%
- Liberty wins by 21+
- 28.6%
- Median score
- 17–30
- Model expectation
- 17.2–29.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Coastal Carolina wins, bars on the left are Liberty wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Liberty 34, Coastal Carolina 1772 games
- Liberty 34, Coastal Carolina 1066 games
- Liberty 23, Coastal Carolina 1060 games
- Liberty 27, Coastal Carolina 1756 games
- Liberty 24, Coastal Carolina 1056 games
- Liberty 20, Coastal Carolina 1754 games
Where the edges are
Coastal Carolina offense vs Liberty defenseOffense -2.8Defense +5.7Edge Liberty: its defense is 8.5 points better than Coastal Carolina's offense.
Liberty offense vs Coastal Carolina defenseOffense +1.7Defense -1.9Edge Liberty: its offense is 3.6 points better than Coastal Carolina's defense.
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Liberty | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.13 | 0.20 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | -0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.5% | 47.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.9% | 33.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.1 | 31.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9 | 14.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.