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Colorado State vs Fresno State prediction
Kickoff Sat 6:30 PM CT, at Fresno State
CSU 25% win75% FRES
30Projected41If CSU upsets
vs
41Projected31If CSU upsetsAway
Colorado State Rams
Record 3–4 · #110 in ratings
Home
Fresno State Bulldogs
Record 4–3 · #63 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (45)
Starts at 45, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | CSU | FRES | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 38 | 31 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog25%Colorado State wins on the road
If Colorado State plays at home38% ▲
Colorado State: 1 win over a higher-rated team (San Diego State 56–49)
Fresno State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (San Diego State 23–26)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Colorado State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- FRES 37, CSU 2752 games
- FRES 40, CSU 3040 games
- FRES 37, CSU 3439 games
- FRES 44, CSU 2737 games
- FRES 37, CSU 2035 games
- Power index
- 20 vs 55
- Projected
- FRES favored
- Differential
- 10.5 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Fresno State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 6:30 PM CT, at Fresno State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Fresno State by 10.5
- Projected total
- 71.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 33.6%
- Went to overtime
- 2.5%
- Colorado State wins by 21+
- 2.3%
- Fresno State wins by 21+
- 26.0%
- Median score
- 30–41
- Model expectation
- 29.9–40.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Colorado State wins, bars on the left are Fresno State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Colorado State offense vs Fresno State defenseOffense +8.1Defense +2.4Edge Colorado State: its offense is 5.7 points better than Fresno State's defense.
Fresno State offense vs Colorado State defenseOffense -1.8Defense -15.0Edge Fresno State: its offense is 13.2 points better than Colorado State's defense.
| Stat | Colorado State | Fresno State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | 0.10 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.35 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.8% | 40.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 54.4% | 41.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.6 | 27.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 44.0 | 20.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
