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Colorado State vs Oregon State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CSU 17% win83% ORST
34Projected
vs
48ProjectedNeutral site
Colorado State Rams
Record 3–4 · #110 in ratings
Neutral site
Oregon State Beavers
Record 5–2 · #24 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 20 vs 83
- Projected
- ORST favored
- Differential
- 14.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Oregon State by 14.5
- Projected total
- 81.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 27.1%
- Went to overtime
- 1.7%
- Colorado State wins by 21+
- 1.2%
- Oregon State wins by 21+
- 34.2%
- Median score
- 33–48
- Model expectation
- 33.3–48.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Colorado State wins, bars on the left are Oregon State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Oregon State 51, Colorado State 3446 games
- Oregon State 47, Colorado State 3043 games
- Oregon State 44, Colorado State 3042 games
- Oregon State 47, Colorado State 2741 games
- Oregon State 44, Colorado State 2739 games
- Oregon State 40, Colorado State 3039 games
Where the edges are
Colorado State offense vs Oregon State defenseOffense +8.1Defense +0.6Edge Colorado State: its offense is 7.5 points better than Oregon State's defense.
Oregon State offense vs Colorado State defenseOffense +7.5Defense -15.0Edge Oregon State: its offense is 22.5 points better than Colorado State's defense.
| Stat | Colorado State | Oregon State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | 0.32 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.35 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.8% | 49.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 54.4% | 40.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.6 | 42.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 44.0 | 23.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.