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Colorado State vs San Diego State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CSU 49% win51% SDSU
39Projected
vs
40ProjectedNeutral site
Colorado State Rams
Record 3–4 · #110 in ratings
Neutral site
San Diego State Aztecs
Record 3–5 · #104 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 20 vs 25
- Projected
- Pick'em
- Differential
- 0.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Pick'em
- Projected total
- 79.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- Colorado State wins by 21+
- 9.7%
- San Diego State wins by 21+
- 10.5%
- Median score
- 39–40
- Model expectation
- 38.9–39.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Colorado State wins, bars on the left are San Diego State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Colorado State 44, San Diego State 3740 games
- Colorado State 37, San Diego State 3037 games
- Colorado State 41, San Diego State 3736 games
- San Diego State 41, Colorado State 3734 games
- San Diego State 44, Colorado State 3734 games
- Colorado State 44, San Diego State 4032 games
Where the edges are
Colorado State offense vs San Diego State defenseOffense +8.1Defense -5.0Edge Colorado State: its offense is 13.1 points better than San Diego State's defense.
San Diego State offense vs Colorado State defenseOffense -1.2Defense -15.0Edge San Diego State: its offense is 13.8 points better than Colorado State's defense.
| Stat | Colorado State | San Diego State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.35 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.8% | 36.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 54.4% | 48.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.6 | 26.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 44.0 | 36.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.