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Colorado State vs Texas State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CSU 31% win69% TXST
36Projected
vs
44ProjectedNeutral site
Colorado State Rams
Record 3–4 · #110 in ratings
Neutral site
Texas State Bobcats
Record 4–3 · #62 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 20 vs 55
- Projected
- TXST favored
- Differential
- 7.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas State by 7.6
- Projected total
- 79.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.5%
- Went to overtime
- 2.5%
- Colorado State wins by 21+
- 3.8%
- Texas State wins by 21+
- 20.6%
- Median score
- 36–44
- Model expectation
- 35.7–43.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Colorado State wins, bars on the left are Texas State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Texas State 44, Colorado State 3449 games
- Texas State 44, Colorado State 3743 games
- Texas State 44, Colorado State 3341 games
- Colorado State 41, Texas State 4040 games
- Texas State 41, Colorado State 3738 games
- Texas State 44, Colorado State 3037 games
Where the edges are
Colorado State offense vs Texas State defenseOffense +8.1Defense -1.9Edge Colorado State: its offense is 10.0 points better than Texas State's defense.
Texas State offense vs Colorado State defenseOffense +2.6Defense -15.0Edge Texas State: its offense is 17.6 points better than Colorado State's defense.
| Stat | Colorado State | Texas State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | 0.28 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.35 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.8% | 50.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 54.4% | 44.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.6 | 37.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 44.0 | 30.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.