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Colorado State vs Utah State prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at Utah State
CSU 47% win53% USU
32Projected
vs
33ProjectedAway
Colorado State Rams
Record 3–4 · #110 in ratings
Home
Utah State Aggies
Record 2–5 · #123 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 20 vs 11
- Projected
- USU favored
- Differential
- 1.1 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Utah State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at Utah State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Utah State by 1.1
- Projected total
- 64.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Colorado State wins by 21+
- 9.1%
- Utah State wins by 21+
- 11.3%
- Median score
- 31–33
- Model expectation
- 31.3–32.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Colorado State wins, bars on the left are Utah State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Utah State 34, Colorado State 3054 games
- Colorado State 34, Utah State 2740 games
- Colorado State 31, Utah State 2739 games
- Utah State 37, Colorado State 2737 games
- Utah State 34, Colorado State 2037 games
- Utah State 30, Colorado State 2737 games
Where the edges are
Colorado State offense vs Utah State defenseOffense +8.1Defense +1.1Edge Colorado State: its offense is 7.0 points better than Utah State's defense.
Utah State offense vs Colorado State defenseOffense -9.9Defense -15.0Edge Utah State: its offense is 5.1 points better than Colorado State's defense.
| Stat | Colorado State | Utah State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.35 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.8% | 36.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 54.4% | 40.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.6 | 14.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 44.0 | 23.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.