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Colorado State vs UTSA prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
CSU 27% win73% UTSA
36Projected
vs
45ProjectedNeutral site
Colorado State Rams
Record 3–4 · #110 in ratings
Neutral site
UTSA Roadrunners
Record 7–1 · #55 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 20 vs 61
- Projected
- UTSA favored
- Differential
- 9.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UTSA by 9.7
- Projected total
- 80.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 33.8%
- Went to overtime
- 2.6%
- Colorado State wins by 21+
- 3.1%
- UTSA wins by 21+
- 24.8%
- Median score
- 35–45
- Model expectation
- 35.3–45
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Colorado State wins, bars on the left are UTSA wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UTSA 44, Colorado State 3740 games
- UTSA 44, Colorado State 2735 games
- UTSA 47, Colorado State 3733 games
- UTSA 44, Colorado State 3433 games
- UTSA 47, Colorado State 4432 games
- UTSA 44, Colorado State 3031 games
Where the edges are
Colorado State offense vs UTSA defenseOffense +8.1Defense -1.5Edge Colorado State: its offense is 9.6 points better than UTSA's defense.
UTSA offense vs Colorado State defenseOffense +4.2Defense -15.0Edge UTSA: its offense is 19.2 points better than Colorado State's defense.
| Stat | Colorado State | UTSA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.35 | 0.11 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.8% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 54.4% | 40.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 38.6 | 33.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 44.0 | 26.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.