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Colorado vs Houston prediction
Kickoff Fri 9:15 PM CT, at Colorado
COLO 19% win81% HOU
18Projected29If COLO upsets
vs
31Projected20If COLO upsetsHome
Colorado Buffaloes
Record 2–5 · #105 in ratings
Away
Houston Cougars
Record 6–2 · #15 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (57)
Starts at 57, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | COLO | HOU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 84 | 56 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert19%Colorado wins at home
At a neutral site13% ▼
Colorado: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Houston: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Texas Tech 26–28)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Colorado won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- HOU 34, COLO 1768 games
- HOU 27, COLO 1763 games
- HOU 27, COLO 1063 games
- HOU 27, COLO 1461 games
- HOU 34, COLO 1058 games
- Power index
- 24 vs 90
- Projected
- HOU favored
- Differential
- 13.1 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Colorado, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 9:15 PM CT, at Colorado.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Houston by 13.1
- Projected total
- 49.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 30.0%
- Went to overtime
- 2.6%
- Colorado wins by 21+
- 1.2%
- Houston wins by 21+
- 30.7%
- Median score
- 17–31
- Model expectation
- 17.9–31
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Colorado wins, bars on the left are Houston wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Colorado offense vs Houston defenseOffense -4.2Defense +5.2Edge Houston: its defense is 9.4 points better than Colorado's offense.
Houston offense vs Colorado defenseOffense +4.7Defense -2.0Edge Houston: its offense is 6.7 points better than Colorado's defense.
| Stat | Colorado | Houston | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.02 | 0.29 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.8% | 51.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7% | 43.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.1 | 36.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.1 | 21.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.