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Colorado vs Kansas State prediction
Kickoff Sat 1:00 PM CT, at Colorado
COLO 38% win62% KSU
22Projected
vs
27ProjectedHome
Colorado Buffaloes
Record 2–5 · #105 in ratings
Away
Kansas State Wildcats
Record 4–3 · #60 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 24 vs 57
- Projected
- KSU favored
- Differential
- 4.3 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Colorado, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 1:00 PM CT, at Colorado.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Kansas State by 4.3
- Projected total
- 48.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.8%
- Went to overtime
- 4.2%
- Colorado wins by 21+
- 4.8%
- Kansas State wins by 21+
- 13.8%
- Median score
- 21–27
- Model expectation
- 21.9–26.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Colorado wins, bars on the left are Kansas State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Kansas State 27, Colorado 2072 games
- Kansas State 24, Colorado 1770 games
- Kansas State 27, Colorado 1762 games
- Kansas State 24, Colorado 2060 games
- Colorado 24, Kansas State 2059 games
- Kansas State 27, Colorado 2458 games
Where the edges are
Colorado offense vs Kansas State defenseOffense -4.2Defense +1.2Edge Kansas State: its defense is 5.4 points better than Colorado's offense.
Kansas State offense vs Colorado defenseOffense -0.0Defense -2.0Edge Kansas State: its offense is 2.0 points better than Colorado's defense.
| Stat | Colorado | Kansas State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.02 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.0% | 45.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7% | 36.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.1 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.1 | 21.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.