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Colorado vs Northwestern prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
COLO 14% win86% NU
17Projected
vs
33ProjectedNeutral site
Colorado Buffaloes
Record 2–5 · #105 in ratings
Neutral site
Northwestern Wildcats
Record 6–1 · #17 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 24 vs 88
- Projected
- NU favored
- Differential
- 15.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Northwestern by 15.9
- Projected total
- 50.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 25.6%
- Went to overtime
- 2.1%
- Colorado wins by 21+
- 0.7%
- Northwestern wins by 21+
- 37.2%
- Median score
- 17–33
- Model expectation
- 17.2–33.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Colorado wins, bars on the left are Northwestern wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Northwestern 34, Colorado 1766 games
- Northwestern 34, Colorado 1062 games
- Northwestern 30, Colorado 1055 games
- Northwestern 37, Colorado 1755 games
- Northwestern 41, Colorado 1753 games
- Northwestern 27, Colorado 1052 games
Where the edges are
Colorado offense vs Northwestern defenseOffense -4.2Defense +4.4Edge Northwestern: its defense is 8.6 points better than Colorado's offense.
Northwestern offense vs Colorado defenseOffense +5.4Defense -2.0Edge Northwestern: its offense is 7.4 points better than Colorado's defense.
| Stat | Colorado | Northwestern | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.02 | 0.35 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.0% | 51.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7% | 42.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.1 | 34.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.1 | 16.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.