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Colorado vs Oklahoma State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
COLO 16% win84% OKST
21Projected
vs
36ProjectedNeutral site
Colorado Buffaloes
Record 2–5 · #105 in ratings
Neutral site
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Record 5–2 · #22 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 24 vs 85
- Projected
- OKST favored
- Differential
- 15.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Oklahoma State by 15.0
- Projected total
- 56.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 27.0%
- Went to overtime
- 2.1%
- Colorado wins by 21+
- 1.0%
- Oklahoma State wins by 21+
- 36.0%
- Median score
- 20–35
- Model expectation
- 20.5–35.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Colorado wins, bars on the left are Oklahoma State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Oklahoma State 34, Colorado 1758 games
- Oklahoma State 37, Colorado 1756 games
- Oklahoma State 30, Colorado 1748 games
- Oklahoma State 41, Colorado 1748 games
- Oklahoma State 34, Colorado 2746 games
- Oklahoma State 30, Colorado 2046 games
Where the edges are
Colorado offense vs Oklahoma State defenseOffense -4.2Defense +1.0Edge Oklahoma State: its defense is 5.2 points better than Colorado's offense.
Oklahoma State offense vs Colorado defenseOffense +7.5Defense -2.0Edge Oklahoma State: its offense is 9.5 points better than Colorado's defense.
| Stat | Colorado | Oklahoma State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.02 | 0.20 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.0% | 49.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7% | 42.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.1 | 40.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.1 | 23.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.