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Delaware vs Kennesaw State prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:00 PM CT, at Kennesaw State
DEL 51% win49% KENN
25Projected19If KENN upsets
vs
24Projected31If KENN upsetsAway
Delaware Blue Hens
Record 3–4 · #99 in ratings
Home
Kennesaw State Owls
Record 1–6 · #116 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (52)
Starts at 52, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | DEL | KENN | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 50 | 71 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up49%Kennesaw State wins at home
At a neutral site41% ▼
Kennesaw State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Delaware: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (Middle Tennessee 30–33, Vanderbilt 26–35)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Kennesaw State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- KENN 24, DEL 2071 games
- DEL 24, KENN 2063 games
- KENN 27, DEL 2061 games
- KENN 27, DEL 2456 games
- DEL 27, KENN 2055 games
- Power index
- 28 vs 16
- Projected
- DEL favored
- Differential
- 0.5 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Kennesaw State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:00 PM CT, at Kennesaw State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Delaware by 0.5
- Projected total
- 49.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- Delaware wins by 21+
- 9.0%
- Kennesaw State wins by 21+
- 8.1%
- Median score
- 24–24
- Model expectation
- 24.7–24.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Delaware wins, bars on the left are Kennesaw State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Delaware offense vs Kennesaw State defenseOffense -0.1Defense -0.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
Kennesaw State offense vs Delaware defenseOffense -7.7Defense -5.0Edge Delaware: its defense is 2.7 points better than Kennesaw State's offense.
| Stat | Delaware | Kennesaw State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.18 | 0.07 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.5% | 42.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.4% | 43.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.3 | 20.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.4 | 25.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
