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Delaware vs Middle Tennessee prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
DEL 52% win48% MTSU
28Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
Delaware Blue Hens
Record 3–4 · #99 in ratings
Neutral site
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Record 4–3 · #106 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 28 vs 23
- Projected
- DEL favored
- Differential
- 0.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Delaware by 0.9
- Projected total
- 55.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Delaware wins by 21+
- 10.6%
- Middle Tennessee wins by 21+
- 7.9%
- Median score
- 27–27
- Model expectation
- 28–26.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Delaware wins, bars on the left are Middle Tennessee wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Middle Tennessee 31, Delaware 2756 games
- Middle Tennessee 27, Delaware 2354 games
- Delaware 24, Middle Tennessee 2054 games
- Delaware 27, Middle Tennessee 2052 games
- Delaware 34, Middle Tennessee 2751 games
- Middle Tennessee 27, Delaware 2049 games
Where the edges are
Delaware offense vs Middle Tennessee defenseOffense -0.1Defense -2.4Edge Delaware: its offense is 2.2 points better than Middle Tennessee's defense.
Middle Tennessee offense vs Delaware defenseOffense -3.9Defense -5.0Edge Middle Tennessee: its offense is 1.1 points better than Delaware's defense.
| Stat | Delaware | Middle Tennessee | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.19 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.7% | 41.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.4% | 45.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.3 | 23.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.4 | 27.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.