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Duke vs Georgia Tech prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
DUKE 76% win24% GT
32Projected
vs
21ProjectedNeutral site
Duke Blue Devils
Record 5–2 · #46 in ratings
Neutral site
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Record 2–5 · #108 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 67 vs 22
- Projected
- DUKE favored
- Differential
- 10.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Duke by 10.5
- Projected total
- 52.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 34.8%
- Went to overtime
- 2.9%
- Duke wins by 21+
- 25.1%
- Georgia Tech wins by 21+
- 1.9%
- Median score
- 31–20
- Model expectation
- 31.5–20.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Duke wins, bars on the left are Georgia Tech wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Duke 30, Georgia Tech 2462 games
- Duke 30, Georgia Tech 1760 games
- Duke 34, Georgia Tech 1755 games
- Duke 27, Georgia Tech 1053 games
- Duke 30, Georgia Tech 2052 games
- Duke 27, Georgia Tech 2052 games
Where the edges are
Duke offense vs Georgia Tech defenseOffense -0.8Defense -6.5Edge Duke: its offense is 5.7 points better than Georgia Tech's defense.
Georgia Tech offense vs Duke defenseOffense -0.2Defense +4.7Edge Duke: its defense is 4.9 points better than Georgia Tech's offense.
| Stat | Duke | Georgia Tech | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.04 | 0.24 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.3% | 44.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3% | 44.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 29.9 | 26.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.0 | 30.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.