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Duke vs NC State prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:30 AM CT, at NC State
DUKE 64% win36% NCSU
27Projected20If NCSU upsets
vs
22Projected30If NCSU upsetsAway
Duke Blue Devils
Record 5–2 · #46 in ratings
Home
NC State Wolfpack
Record 3–4 · #93 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (45)
Starts at 45, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | DUKE | NCSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 70 | 49 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog36%NC State wins at home
At a neutral site28% ▼
NC State: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (Louisville 31–28, App State 41–31)
Duke: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (North Carolina 20–24, Georgia Tech 25–28)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games NC State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- DUKE 27, NCSU 1772 games
- DUKE 27, NCSU 2066 games
- DUKE 24, NCSU 1766 games
- NCSU 24, DUKE 2060 games
- NCSU 27, DUKE 2053 games
- Power index
- 67 vs 33
- Projected
- DUKE favored
- Differential
- 5.0 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at NC State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:30 AM CT, at NC State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Duke by 5.0
- Projected total
- 49.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- Duke wins by 21+
- 14.2%
- NC State wins by 21+
- 4.0%
- Median score
- 27–21
- Model expectation
- 27.2–22.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Duke wins, bars on the left are NC State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Duke offense vs NC State defenseOffense -0.8Defense -3.7Edge Duke: its offense is 2.9 points better than NC State's defense.
NC State offense vs Duke defenseOffense -0.4Defense +4.7Edge Duke: its defense is 5.1 points better than NC State's offense.
| Stat | Duke | NC State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.04 | 0.23 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.3% | 45.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3% | 44.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 29.9 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.0 | 28.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
