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East Carolina vs Old Dominion prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ECU 69% win31% ODU
26Projected
vs
19ProjectedNeutral site
East Carolina Pirates
Record 3–4 · #94 in ratings
Neutral site
Old Dominion Monarchs
Record 2–6 · #129 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 32 vs 7
- Projected
- ECU favored
- Differential
- 7.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- East Carolina by 7.1
- Projected total
- 44.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.1%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- East Carolina wins by 21+
- 17.6%
- Old Dominion wins by 21+
- 2.8%
- Median score
- 25–17
- Model expectation
- 25.4–18.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are East Carolina wins, bars on the left are Old Dominion wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- East Carolina 27, Old Dominion 1775 games
- Old Dominion 24, East Carolina 2072 games
- East Carolina 27, Old Dominion 1068 games
- East Carolina 17, Old Dominion 1067 games
- East Carolina 20, Old Dominion 1766 games
- Old Dominion 24, East Carolina 1766 games
Where the edges are
East Carolina offense vs Old Dominion defenseOffense -2.0Defense -1.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
Old Dominion offense vs East Carolina defenseOffense -9.5Defense -2.1Edge East Carolina: its defense is 7.4 points better than Old Dominion's offense.
| Stat | East Carolina | Old Dominion | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | -0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 38.0% | 30.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.1% | 39.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.0 | 15.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 26.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.