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East Carolina vs Rice prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ECU 61% win39% RICE
27Projected
vs
23ProjectedNeutral site
East Carolina Pirates
Record 3–4 · #94 in ratings
Neutral site
Rice Owls
Record 1–7 · #115 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 32 vs 17
- Projected
- ECU favored
- Differential
- 4.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- East Carolina by 4.0
- Projected total
- 50.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- East Carolina wins by 21+
- 13.7%
- Rice wins by 21+
- 5.5%
- Median score
- 27–23
- Model expectation
- 27.1–23.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are East Carolina wins, bars on the left are Rice wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- East Carolina 27, Rice 2466 games
- East Carolina 27, Rice 2065 games
- Rice 24, East Carolina 2059 games
- East Carolina 24, Rice 2058 games
- East Carolina 27, Rice 1756 games
- East Carolina 24, Rice 1749 games
Where the edges are
East Carolina offense vs Rice defenseOffense -2.0Defense -3.3Edge East Carolina: its offense is 1.3 points better than Rice's defense.
Rice offense vs East Carolina defenseOffense -4.8Defense -2.1Edge East Carolina: its defense is 2.7 points better than Rice's offense.
| Stat | East Carolina | Rice | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.03 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 38.0% | 40.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.1% | 42.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.0 | 21.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 31.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.