Loading the matchup…
East Carolina vs South Florida prediction
Kickoff Fri 6:30 PM CT, at East Carolina
ECU 41% win59% USF
21Projected28If ECU upsets
vs
25Projected18If ECU upsetsHome
East Carolina Pirates
Record 3–4 · #94 in ratings
Away
South Florida Bulls
Record 5–2 · #56 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (47)
Starts at 47, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | ECU | USF | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.2 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 60 | 39 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up41%East Carolina wins at home
At a neutral site33% ▼
East Carolina: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
South Florida: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Temple 13–17)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games East Carolina won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- USF 24, ECU 1776 games
- USF 20, ECU 1368 games
- USF 27, ECU 2065 games
- USF 27, ECU 1764 games
- USF 24, ECU 2064 games
- Power index
- 32 vs 60
- Projected
- USF favored
- Differential
- 3.3 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at East Carolina, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 6:30 PM CT, at East Carolina.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- South Florida by 3.3
- Projected total
- 45.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.4%
- Went to overtime
- 4.2%
- East Carolina wins by 21+
- 5.5%
- South Florida wins by 21+
- 11.6%
- Median score
- 20–24
- Model expectation
- 21–24.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are East Carolina wins, bars on the left are South Florida wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
East Carolina offense vs South Florida defenseOffense -2.0Defense +4.2Edge South Florida: its defense is 6.2 points better than East Carolina's offense.
South Florida offense vs East Carolina defenseOffense -2.2Defense -2.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | East Carolina | South Florida | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 38.0% | 47.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.1% | 42.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.0 | 26.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
