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East Carolina vs Temple prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:00 PM CT, at East Carolina
ECU 62% win38% TEM
29Projected
vs
24ProjectedHome
East Carolina Pirates
Record 3–4 · #94 in ratings
Away
Temple Owls
Record 2–5 · #102 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 32 vs 26
- Projected
- ECU favored
- Differential
- 4.8 pts
Team A conference
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Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at East Carolina, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:00 PM CT, at East Carolina.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- East Carolina by 4.8
- Projected total
- 53.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- East Carolina wins by 21+
- 15.1%
- Temple wins by 21+
- 4.7%
- Median score
- 29–24
- Model expectation
- 29–24.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are East Carolina wins, bars on the left are Temple wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- East Carolina 27, Temple 2060 games
- East Carolina 20, Temple 1754 games
- East Carolina 27, Temple 2353 games
- East Carolina 30, Temple 2751 games
- Temple 24, East Carolina 2051 games
- East Carolina 34, Temple 2745 games
Where the edges are
East Carolina offense vs Temple defenseOffense -2.0Defense -3.7Edge East Carolina: its offense is 1.7 points better than Temple's defense.
Temple offense vs East Carolina defenseOffense -2.3Defense -2.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | East Carolina | Temple | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.21 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 38.0% | 43.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.1% | 46.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.0 | 25.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 28.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.