Loading the matchup…
East Carolina vs UAB prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ECU 56% win44% UAB
25Projected
vs
23ProjectedNeutral site
East Carolina Pirates
Record 3–4 · #94 in ratings
Neutral site
UAB Blazers
Record 4–3 · #103 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 32 vs 26
- Projected
- ECU favored
- Differential
- 1.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- East Carolina by 1.9
- Projected total
- 48.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- East Carolina wins by 21+
- 10.8%
- UAB wins by 21+
- 6.9%
- Median score
- 24–23
- Model expectation
- 24.8–22.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are East Carolina wins, bars on the left are UAB wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- East Carolina 24, UAB 2066 games
- East Carolina 24, UAB 1763 games
- East Carolina 27, UAB 2460 games
- East Carolina 27, UAB 2057 games
- East Carolina 20, UAB 1756 games
- UAB 24, East Carolina 1753 games
Where the edges are
East Carolina offense vs UAB defenseOffense -2.0Defense -1.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
UAB offense vs East Carolina defenseOffense -5.1Defense -2.1Edge East Carolina: its defense is 3.0 points better than UAB's offense.
| Stat | East Carolina | UAB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.05 | 0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.02 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 38.0% | 41.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.1% | 43.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.0 | 23.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.