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Eastern Michigan vs Kent State prediction
Kickoff Tue 6:00 PM CT, at Eastern Michigan
EMU 66% win34% KENT
23Projected15If KENT upsets
vs
17Projected24If KENT upsetsHome
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Record 4–5 · #120 in ratings
Away
Kent State Golden Flashes
Record 3–5 · #128 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (49)
Starts at 49, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | EMU | KENT | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 41 | 67 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog34%Kent State wins on the road
If Kent State plays at home51% ▲
Kent State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
Eastern Michigan: no losses to lower-rated teams in 8 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Kent State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- EMU 20, KENT 1792 games
- EMU 24, KENT 1788 games
- EMU 17, KENT 1086 games
- EMU 20, KENT 1081 games
- EMU 17, KENT 1378 games
- Power index
- 13 vs 7
- Projected
- EMU favored
- Differential
- 5.5 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Eastern Michigan, luck set to normal. The real game is Tue 6:00 PM CT, at Eastern Michigan.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Eastern Michigan by 5.5
- Projected total
- 39.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.9%
- Went to overtime
- 4.7%
- Eastern Michigan wins by 21+
- 13.9%
- Kent State wins by 21+
- 3.2%
- Median score
- 23–17
- Model expectation
- 22.4–16.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Eastern Michigan wins, bars on the left are Kent State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Eastern Michigan offense vs Kent State defenseOffense -5.8Defense -1.0Edge Kent State: its defense is 4.9 points better than Eastern Michigan's offense.
Kent State offense vs Eastern Michigan defenseOffense -10.2Defense -2.7Edge Eastern Michigan: its defense is 7.6 points better than Kent State's offense.
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Kent State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.03 | -0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.13 | 0.11 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.0% | 35.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 45.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.3 | 14.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 30.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.