Loading the matchup…
Eastern Michigan vs Massachusetts prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
EMU 42% win58% MASS
22Projected
vs
25ProjectedNeutral site
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Record 4–5 · #120 in ratings
Neutral site
Massachusetts Minutemen
Record 4–4 · #101 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 13 vs 27
- Projected
- MASS favored
- Differential
- 2.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Massachusetts by 2.9
- Projected total
- 46.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.0%
- Went to overtime
- 4.3%
- Eastern Michigan wins by 21+
- 5.4%
- Massachusetts wins by 21+
- 11.4%
- Median score
- 21–24
- Model expectation
- 21.3–24.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Eastern Michigan wins, bars on the left are Massachusetts wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Massachusetts 27, Eastern Michigan 2071 games
- Massachusetts 24, Eastern Michigan 1768 games
- Massachusetts 20, Eastern Michigan 1765 games
- Massachusetts 24, Eastern Michigan 2064 games
- Eastern Michigan 24, Massachusetts 2062 games
- Massachusetts 27, Eastern Michigan 2462 games
Where the edges are
Eastern Michigan offense vs Massachusetts defenseOffense -5.8Defense -1.4Edge Massachusetts: its defense is 4.5 points better than Eastern Michigan's offense.
Massachusetts offense vs Eastern Michigan defenseOffense -4.2Defense -2.7Edge Eastern Michigan: its defense is 1.5 points better than Massachusetts's offense.
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Massachusetts | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.03 | 0.14 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.13 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.0% | 41.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 39.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.3 | 26.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 21.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.