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Eastern Michigan vs Ohio prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
EMU 30% win70% OHIO
21Projected
vs
29ProjectedNeutral site
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Record 4–5 · #120 in ratings
Neutral site
Ohio Bobcats
Record 6–2 · #80 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 13 vs 42
- Projected
- OHIO favored
- Differential
- 7.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ohio by 7.5
- Projected total
- 49.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Eastern Michigan wins by 21+
- 2.9%
- Ohio wins by 21+
- 18.6%
- Median score
- 20–28
- Model expectation
- 20.8–28.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Eastern Michigan wins, bars on the left are Ohio wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Ohio 27, Eastern Michigan 1766 games
- Ohio 20, Eastern Michigan 1765 games
- Ohio 27, Eastern Michigan 2057 games
- Ohio 24, Eastern Michigan 1756 games
- Eastern Michigan 24, Ohio 2055 games
- Ohio 24, Eastern Michigan 2055 games
Where the edges are
Eastern Michigan offense vs Ohio defenseOffense -5.8Defense -0.9Edge Ohio: its defense is 4.9 points better than Eastern Michigan's offense.
Ohio offense vs Eastern Michigan defenseOffense -0.4Defense -2.7Edge Ohio: its offense is 2.3 points better than Eastern Michigan's defense.
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Ohio | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.03 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.13 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.0% | 48.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 40.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.3 | 29.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 21.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.