Loading the matchup…
Eastern Michigan vs Sacramento State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
EMU 79% win21% SAC
28Projected
vs
17ProjectedNeutral site
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Record 4–5 · #120 in ratings
Neutral site
Sacramento State Hornets
Record 1–7 · #137 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 13 vs 1
- Projected
- EMU favored
- Differential
- 11.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Eastern Michigan by 11.3
- Projected total
- 44.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 33.9%
- Went to overtime
- 2.9%
- Eastern Michigan wins by 21+
- 25.7%
- Sacramento State wins by 21+
- 1.3%
- Median score
- 27–16
- Model expectation
- 27.7–16.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Eastern Michigan wins, bars on the left are Sacramento State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Eastern Michigan 27, Sacramento State 1792 games
- Eastern Michigan 34, Sacramento State 1075 games
- Eastern Michigan 24, Sacramento State 1774 games
- Eastern Michigan 34, Sacramento State 1773 games
- Eastern Michigan 20, Sacramento State 1071 games
- Eastern Michigan 24, Sacramento State 1070 games
Where the edges are
Eastern Michigan offense vs Sacramento State defenseOffense -5.8Defense -7.8Edge Eastern Michigan: its offense is 2.0 points better than Sacramento State's defense.
Sacramento State offense vs Eastern Michigan defenseOffense -12.0Defense -2.7Edge Eastern Michigan: its defense is 9.4 points better than Sacramento State's offense.
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Sacramento State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.03 | -0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.13 | 0.20 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.0% | 36.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 41.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.3 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.7 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.