Loading the matchup…
Florida Atlantic vs Florida International prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FAU 46% win54% FIU
26Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
Florida Atlantic Owls
Record 5–2 · #92 in ratings
Neutral site
Florida International Panthers
Record 3–4 · #85 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 34 vs 39
- Projected
- FIU favored
- Differential
- 1.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Florida International by 1.3
- Projected total
- 52.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.5%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- Florida Atlantic wins by 21+
- 7.4%
- Florida International wins by 21+
- 9.7%
- Median score
- 24–27
- Model expectation
- 25.2–26.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida Atlantic wins, bars on the left are Florida International wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Florida Atlantic 27, Florida International 2467 games
- Florida Atlantic 27, Florida International 2060 games
- Florida International 27, Florida Atlantic 2053 games
- Florida International 27, Florida Atlantic 2453 games
- Florida International 31, Florida Atlantic 2751 games
- Florida International 24, Florida Atlantic 2051 games
Where the edges are
Florida Atlantic offense vs Florida International defenseOffense +4.0Defense +4.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
Florida International offense vs Florida Atlantic defenseOffense -7.5Defense -8.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | Florida International | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | 0.03 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.26 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.0% | 39.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5% | 37.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.3 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 34.0 | 16.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.