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Florida Atlantic vs Navy prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FAU 46% win54% NAVY
33Projected
vs
34ProjectedNeutral site
Florida Atlantic Owls
Record 5–2 · #92 in ratings
Neutral site
Navy Midshipmen
Record 2–5 · #84 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 34 vs 39
- Projected
- NAVY favored
- Differential
- 1.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Navy by 1.6
- Projected total
- 67.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Florida Atlantic wins by 21+
- 7.6%
- Navy wins by 21+
- 11.0%
- Median score
- 33–34
- Model expectation
- 32.4–34
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida Atlantic wins, bars on the left are Navy wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Navy 34, Florida Atlantic 3047 games
- Navy 37, Florida Atlantic 2743 games
- Florida Atlantic 30, Navy 2741 games
- Florida Atlantic 34, Navy 2741 games
- Florida Atlantic 31, Navy 2738 games
- Navy 34, Florida Atlantic 2338 games
Where the edges are
Florida Atlantic offense vs Navy defenseOffense +4.0Defense -2.6Edge Florida Atlantic: its offense is 6.6 points better than Navy's defense.
Navy offense vs Florida Atlantic defenseOffense +0.1Defense -8.0Edge Navy: its offense is 8.2 points better than Florida Atlantic's defense.
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | Navy | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.26 | 0.18 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.0% | 47.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5% | 40.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.3 | 29.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 34.0 | 29.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.