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Florida Atlantic vs UL Monroe prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FAU 79% win21% ULM
39Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
Florida Atlantic Owls
Record 5–2 · #92 in ratings
Neutral site
UL Monroe Warhawks
Record 1–6 · #136 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 34 vs 1
- Projected
- FAU favored
- Differential
- 12.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Florida Atlantic by 12.3
- Projected total
- 65.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.1%
- Went to overtime
- 2.3%
- Florida Atlantic wins by 21+
- 29.8%
- UL Monroe wins by 21+
- 1.8%
- Median score
- 38–26
- Model expectation
- 38.4–26.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida Atlantic wins, bars on the left are UL Monroe wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Florida Atlantic 37, UL Monroe 3047 games
- Florida Atlantic 40, UL Monroe 2043 games
- Florida Atlantic 33, UL Monroe 2743 games
- Florida Atlantic 37, UL Monroe 2743 games
- Florida Atlantic 37, UL Monroe 2442 games
- Florida Atlantic 44, UL Monroe 2742 games
Where the edges are
Florida Atlantic offense vs UL Monroe defenseOffense +4.0Defense -8.6Edge Florida Atlantic: its offense is 12.7 points better than UL Monroe's defense.
UL Monroe offense vs Florida Atlantic defenseOffense -7.7Defense -8.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | UL Monroe | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | -0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.26 | 0.24 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.0% | 40.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5% | 46.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 37.3 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 34.0 | 37.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.