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Florida International vs Jacksonville State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FIU 47% win53% JXST
20Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
Florida International Panthers
Record 3–4 · #85 in ratings
Neutral site
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Record 5–2 · #82 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 39 vs 41
- Projected
- JXST favored
- Differential
- 1.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Jacksonville State by 1.1
- Projected total
- 41.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 45.7%
- Went to overtime
- 5.0%
- Florida International wins by 21+
- 6.4%
- Jacksonville State wins by 21+
- 8.8%
- Median score
- 20–21
- Model expectation
- 20–21
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida International wins, bars on the left are Jacksonville State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Jacksonville State 20, Florida International 1787 games
- Jacksonville State 24, Florida International 2085 games
- Jacksonville State 24, Florida International 1777 games
- Florida International 17, Jacksonville State 1376 games
- Florida International 24, Jacksonville State 1775 games
- Florida International 24, Jacksonville State 2072 games
Where the edges are
Florida International offense vs Jacksonville State defenseOffense -7.5Defense -1.7Edge Jacksonville State: its defense is 5.8 points better than Florida International's offense.
Jacksonville State offense vs Florida International defenseOffense -0.2Defense +4.6Edge Florida International: its defense is 4.8 points better than Jacksonville State's offense.
| Stat | Florida International | Jacksonville State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.03 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.7% | 47.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.1% | 42.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.1 | 27.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.3 | 22.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.