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Florida International vs Liberty prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at Liberty
FIU 15% win85% LIB
11Projected
vs
25ProjectedAway
Florida International Panthers
Record 3–4 · #85 in ratings
Home
Liberty Flames
Record 6–1 · #26 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 39 vs 82
- Projected
- LIB favored
- Differential
- 13.3 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Liberty, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at Liberty.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Liberty by 13.3
- Projected total
- 35.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Florida International wins by 21+
- 0.4%
- Liberty wins by 21+
- 28.7%
- Median score
- 10–24
- Model expectation
- 11–24.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida International wins, bars on the left are Liberty wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Liberty 20, Florida International 7120 games
- Liberty 27, Florida International 7113 games
- Liberty 17, Florida International 7110 games
- Liberty 27, Florida International 10107 games
- Liberty 24, Florida International 7106 games
- Liberty 20, Florida International 10103 games
Where the edges are
Florida International offense vs Liberty defenseOffense -7.5Defense +5.7Edge Liberty: its defense is 13.2 points better than Florida International's offense.
Liberty offense vs Florida International defenseOffense +1.7Defense +4.6Edge Florida International: its defense is 2.9 points better than Liberty's offense.
| Stat | Florida International | Liberty | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.03 | 0.20 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | -0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.7% | 47.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.1% | 33.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.1 | 31.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.3 | 14.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.