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Florida International vs Middle Tennessee prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FIU 59% win41% MTSU
21Projected
vs
18ProjectedNeutral site
Florida International Panthers
Record 3–4 · #85 in ratings
Neutral site
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Record 4–3 · #106 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 39 vs 23
- Projected
- FIU favored
- Differential
- 3.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Florida International by 3.2
- Projected total
- 38.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 46.2%
- Went to overtime
- 5.0%
- Florida International wins by 21+
- 11.0%
- Middle Tennessee wins by 21+
- 4.4%
- Median score
- 20–17
- Model expectation
- 20.7–17.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida International wins, bars on the left are Middle Tennessee wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Florida International 17, Middle Tennessee 10110 games
- Middle Tennessee 17, Florida International 10108 games
- Florida International 24, Middle Tennessee 1788 games
- Florida International 20, Middle Tennessee 1784 games
- Florida International 17, Middle Tennessee 1380 games
- Florida International 24, Middle Tennessee 1073 games
Where the edges are
Florida International offense vs Middle Tennessee defenseOffense -7.5Defense -2.4Edge Middle Tennessee: its defense is 5.1 points better than Florida International's offense.
Middle Tennessee offense vs Florida International defenseOffense -3.9Defense +4.6Edge Florida International: its defense is 8.5 points better than Middle Tennessee's offense.
| Stat | Florida International | Middle Tennessee | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.03 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.7% | 41.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.1% | 45.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.1 | 23.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.3 | 27.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.