Loading the matchup…
Florida International vs South Florida prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FIU 35% win65% USF
14Projected
vs
19ProjectedNeutral site
Florida International Panthers
Record 3–4 · #85 in ratings
Neutral site
South Florida Bulls
Record 5–2 · #56 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 39 vs 60
- Projected
- USF favored
- Differential
- 4.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- South Florida by 4.9
- Projected total
- 33.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 46.2%
- Went to overtime
- 5.3%
- Florida International wins by 21+
- 3.0%
- South Florida wins by 21+
- 11.6%
- Median score
- 14–19
- Model expectation
- 14.1–19
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida International wins, bars on the left are South Florida wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- South Florida 17, Florida International 10137 games
- South Florida 17, Florida International 7109 games
- South Florida 17, Florida International 14104 games
- South Florida 10, Florida International 798 games
- South Florida 13, Florida International 1097 games
- South Florida 20, Florida International 791 games
Where the edges are
Florida International offense vs South Florida defenseOffense -7.5Defense +4.2Edge South Florida: its defense is 11.7 points better than Florida International's offense.
South Florida offense vs Florida International defenseOffense -2.2Defense +4.6Edge Florida International: its defense is 6.8 points better than South Florida's offense.
| Stat | Florida International | South Florida | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.03 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 39.7% | 47.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.1% | 42.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.1 | 26.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 16.3 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.