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Florida State vs Miami prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FSU 19% win81% MIA
25Projected
vs
38ProjectedNeutral site
Florida State Seminoles
Record 3–4 · #42 in ratings
Neutral site
Miami Hurricanes
Record 7–0 · #2 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 70 vs 99
- Projected
- MIA favored
- Differential
- 12.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Miami by 12.9
- Projected total
- 62.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 30.0%
- Went to overtime
- 2.1%
- Florida State wins by 21+
- 1.3%
- Miami wins by 21+
- 30.8%
- Median score
- 24–37
- Model expectation
- 24.7–37.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida State wins, bars on the left are Miami wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Miami 37, Florida State 1752 games
- Miami 34, Florida State 1751 games
- Miami 30, Florida State 1748 games
- Miami 37, Florida State 2447 games
- Miami 34, Florida State 2747 games
- Miami 34, Florida State 2447 games
Where the edges are
Florida State offense vs Miami defenseOffense +4.6Defense +5.6Edge Miami: its defense is 1.0 points better than Florida State's offense.
Miami offense vs Florida State defenseOffense +11.8Defense -0.1Edge Miami: its offense is 11.9 points better than Florida State's defense.
| Stat | Florida State | Miami | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | 0.45 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.25 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.6% | 53.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 37.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.6 | 49.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.9 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.