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Florida State vs NC State prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Florida State
FSU 78% win22% NCSU
36Projected26If NCSU upsets
vs
24Projected35If NCSU upsetsHome
Florida State Seminoles
Record 3–4 · #42 in ratings
Away
NC State Wolfpack
Record 3–4 · #93 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (47)
Starts at 47, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | FSU | NCSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 56 | 49 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert22%NC State wins on the road
If NC State plays at home35% ▲
NC State: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (Louisville 31–28, App State 41–31)
Florida State: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games NC State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- FSU 34, NCSU 2054 games
- FSU 30, NCSU 2753 games
- FSU 37, NCSU 2047 games
- FSU 34, NCSU 2745 games
- FSU 34, NCSU 2445 games
- Power index
- 70 vs 33
- Projected
- FSU favored
- Differential
- 11.5 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Florida State, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Florida State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Florida State by 11.5
- Projected total
- 60.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 32.5%
- Went to overtime
- 2.6%
- Florida State wins by 21+
- 27.2%
- NC State wins by 21+
- 1.9%
- Median score
- 36–24
- Model expectation
- 35.6–23.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida State wins, bars on the left are NC State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Florida State offense vs NC State defenseOffense +4.6Defense -3.7Edge Florida State: its offense is 8.3 points better than NC State's defense.
NC State offense vs Florida State defenseOffense -0.4Defense -0.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Florida State | NC State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.25 | 0.23 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.6% | 45.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 44.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.6 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.9 | 28.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.