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Florida State vs New Mexico State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FSU 74% win26% NMSU
34Projected
vs
24ProjectedNeutral site
Florida State Seminoles
Record 3–4 · #42 in ratings
Neutral site
New Mexico State Aggies
Record 3–4 · #100 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 70 vs 28
- Projected
- FSU favored
- Differential
- 9.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Florida State by 9.7
- Projected total
- 58.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 34.5%
- Went to overtime
- 2.7%
- Florida State wins by 21+
- 24.5%
- New Mexico State wins by 21+
- 2.4%
- Median score
- 34–24
- Model expectation
- 33.8–24.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida State wins, bars on the left are New Mexico State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Florida State 34, New Mexico State 2055 games
- Florida State 30, New Mexico State 1754 games
- Florida State 34, New Mexico State 2744 games
- Florida State 30, New Mexico State 2444 games
- Florida State 34, New Mexico State 1743 games
- Florida State 27, New Mexico State 2442 games
Where the edges are
Florida State offense vs New Mexico State defenseOffense +4.6Defense -3.4Edge Florida State: its offense is 8.0 points better than New Mexico State's defense.
New Mexico State offense vs Florida State defenseOffense -1.8Defense -0.1Edge Florida State: its defense is 1.7 points better than New Mexico State's offense.
| Stat | Florida State | New Mexico State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.25 | 0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.6% | 39.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 38.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.6 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.9 | 25.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.