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Florida State vs SMU prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FSU 48% win52% SMU
29Projected
vs
30ProjectedNeutral site
Florida State Seminoles
Record 3–4 · #42 in ratings
Neutral site
SMU Mustangs
Record 6–1 · #37 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 70 vs 74
- Projected
- SMU favored
- Differential
- 1.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- SMU by 1.0
- Projected total
- 58.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.4%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- Florida State wins by 21+
- 8.1%
- SMU wins by 21+
- 10.4%
- Median score
- 28–30
- Model expectation
- 28.7–29.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida State wins, bars on the left are SMU wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- SMU 34, Florida State 2455 games
- SMU 30, Florida State 2753 games
- Florida State 27, SMU 2050 games
- Florida State 27, SMU 2349 games
- Florida State 30, SMU 2749 games
- SMU 27, Florida State 2348 games
Where the edges are
Florida State offense vs SMU defenseOffense +4.6Defense +1.6Edge Florida State: its offense is 3.0 points better than SMU's defense.
SMU offense vs Florida State defenseOffense +3.8Defense -0.1Edge SMU: its offense is 3.9 points better than Florida State's defense.
| Stat | Florida State | SMU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | 0.24 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.25 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.6% | 49.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% | 37.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.6 | 36.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 27.9 | 21.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.