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Florida vs Georgia prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at a neutral site
FLA 33% win67% UGA
29Projected
vs
35ProjectedNeutral site
Florida Gators
Record 5–2 · #30 in ratings
Neutral site
Georgia Bulldogs
Record 6–1 · #7 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 79 vs 96
- Projected
- UGA favored
- Differential
- 6.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at a neutral site.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Georgia by 6.6
- Projected total
- 63.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Florida wins by 21+
- 3.3%
- Georgia wins by 21+
- 17.3%
- Median score
- 28–34
- Model expectation
- 28.4–35.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida wins, bars on the left are Georgia wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Georgia 37, Florida 2759 games
- Georgia 30, Florida 2756 games
- Florida 34, Georgia 3055 games
- Georgia 34, Florida 3048 games
- Georgia 34, Florida 2747 games
- Georgia 37, Florida 2347 games
Where the edges are
Florida offense vs Georgia defenseOffense +7.9Defense +5.3Edge Florida: its offense is 2.7 points better than Georgia's defense.
Georgia offense vs Florida defenseOffense +8.3Defense -1.0Edge Georgia: its offense is 9.3 points better than Florida's defense.
| Stat | Florida | Georgia | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.25 | 0.33 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.11 | 0.00 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.9% | 53.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 34.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 39.6 | 43.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.3 | 15.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.