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Florida vs Kentucky prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Kentucky
FLA 42% win58% UK
31Projected39If FLA upsets
vs
34Projected27If FLA upsetsAway
Florida Gators
Record 5–2 · #30 in ratings
Home
Kentucky Wildcats
Record 7–1 · #27 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (52)
Starts at 52, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | FLA | UK | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 75 | 42 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up42%Florida wins on the road
If Florida plays at home56% ▲
Florida: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (Texas 27–24, Ole Miss 52–28)
Kentucky: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Florida won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- UK 30, FLA 2748 games
- UK 34, FLA 3045 games
- UK 34, FLA 2739 games
- FLA 31, UK 2737 games
- FLA 34, UK 3037 games
- Power index
- 79 vs 81
- Projected
- UK favored
- Differential
- 3.2 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Kentucky, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Kentucky.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Kentucky by 3.2
- Projected total
- 65.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- Florida wins by 21+
- 6.6%
- Kentucky wins by 21+
- 13.6%
- Median score
- 31–34
- Model expectation
- 30.8–34.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida wins, bars on the left are Kentucky wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Florida offense vs Kentucky defenseOffense +7.9Defense +1.4Edge Florida: its offense is 6.5 points better than Kentucky's defense.
Kentucky offense vs Florida defenseOffense +5.9Defense -1.0Edge Kentucky: its offense is 6.9 points better than Florida's defense.
| Stat | Florida | Kentucky | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.25 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.11 | 0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.9% | 48.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 44.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 39.6 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.3 | 24.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.