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Florida vs Missouri prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FLA 49% win51% MIZ
29Projected
vs
30ProjectedNeutral site
Florida Gators
Record 5–2 · #30 in ratings
Neutral site
Missouri Tigers
Record 5–2 · #28 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 79 vs 80
- Projected
- MIZ favored
- Differential
- 0.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Missouri by 0.5
- Projected total
- 59.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Florida wins by 21+
- 9.0%
- Missouri wins by 21+
- 9.8%
- Median score
- 30–30
- Model expectation
- 29.1–29.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida wins, bars on the left are Missouri wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Florida 31, Missouri 2755 games
- Florida 30, Missouri 2754 games
- Florida 34, Missouri 2751 games
- Florida 27, Missouri 2049 games
- Missouri 27, Florida 2046 games
- Florida 27, Missouri 2344 games
Where the edges are
Florida offense vs Missouri defenseOffense +7.9Defense +4.6Edge Florida: its offense is 3.3 points better than Missouri's defense.
Missouri offense vs Florida defenseOffense +2.6Defense -1.0Edge Missouri: its offense is 3.6 points better than Florida's defense.
| Stat | Florida | Missouri | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.25 | 0.17 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.11 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.9% | 41.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 35.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 39.6 | 31.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.3 | 19.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.