Loading the matchup…
Florida vs Oklahoma prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Florida
FLA 63% win37% OU
28Projected20If OU upsets
vs
23Projected31If OU upsetsHome
Florida Gators
Record 5–2 · #30 in ratings
Away
Oklahoma Sooners
Record 4–3 · #39 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (55)
Starts at 55, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | FLA | OU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 75 | 55 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog37%Oklahoma wins on the road
If Oklahoma plays at home51% ▲
Oklahoma: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (Texas 27–24, New Mexico 14–6)
Florida: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (South Carolina 19–38)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Oklahoma won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- FLA 24, OU 1765 games
- OU 24, FLA 2059 games
- FLA 27, OU 1759 games
- FLA 24, OU 2056 games
- FLA 27, OU 2055 games
- Power index
- 79 vs 72
- Projected
- FLA favored
- Differential
- 5.0 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Florida, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Florida.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Florida by 5.0
- Projected total
- 50.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.6%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- Florida wins by 21+
- 15.6%
- Oklahoma wins by 21+
- 5.1%
- Median score
- 27–22
- Model expectation
- 27.5–22.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida wins, bars on the left are Oklahoma wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Florida offense vs Oklahoma defenseOffense +7.9Defense +7.7Even: neither side has a real edge.
Oklahoma offense vs Florida defenseOffense -2.9Defense -1.0Edge Florida: its defense is 1.9 points better than Oklahoma's offense.
| Stat | Florida | Oklahoma | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.25 | -0.02 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.11 | -0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.9% | 36.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 33.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 39.6 | 21.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.3 | 17.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.