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Florida vs South Carolina prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FLA 53% win47% SC
33Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
Florida Gators
Record 5–2 · #30 in ratings
Neutral site
South Carolina Gamecocks
Record 4–3 · #34 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 79 vs 76
- Projected
- FLA favored
- Differential
- 1.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Florida by 1.0
- Projected total
- 65.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.3%
- Florida wins by 21+
- 10.2%
- South Carolina wins by 21+
- 8.2%
- Median score
- 33–32
- Model expectation
- 33–31.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida wins, bars on the left are South Carolina wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Florida 34, South Carolina 3057 games
- Florida 30, South Carolina 2750 games
- South Carolina 34, Florida 2746 games
- Florida 37, South Carolina 3443 games
- South Carolina 37, Florida 2743 games
- South Carolina 34, Florida 3042 games
Where the edges are
Florida offense vs South Carolina defenseOffense +7.9Defense +0.7Edge Florida: its offense is 7.2 points better than South Carolina's defense.
South Carolina offense vs Florida defenseOffense +5.1Defense -1.0Edge South Carolina: its offense is 6.1 points better than Florida's defense.
| Stat | Florida | South Carolina | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.25 | 0.19 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.11 | 0.13 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.9% | 44.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 42.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 39.6 | 36.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.3 | 25.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.