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Florida vs Texas prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FLA 38% win62% TEX
26Projected
vs
31ProjectedNeutral site
Florida Gators
Record 5–2 · #30 in ratings
Neutral site
Texas Longhorns
Record 5–2 · #9 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 79 vs 94
- Projected
- TEX favored
- Differential
- 4.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas by 4.6
- Projected total
- 56.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Florida wins by 21+
- 5.0%
- Texas wins by 21+
- 14.5%
- Median score
- 26–30
- Model expectation
- 25.8–30.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Florida wins, bars on the left are Texas wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Texas 27, Florida 1751 games
- Texas 27, Florida 2451 games
- Texas 34, Florida 2047 games
- Texas 30, Florida 2747 games
- Texas 34, Florida 3046 games
- Florida 27, Texas 2446 games
Where the edges are
Florida offense vs Texas defenseOffense +7.9Defense +8.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
Texas offense vs Florida defenseOffense +3.7Defense -1.0Edge Texas: its offense is 4.7 points better than Florida's defense.
| Stat | Florida | Texas | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.25 | 0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.11 | -0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.9% | 42.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 34.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 39.6 | 30.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 28.3 | 19.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.