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Fresno State vs Oregon State prediction
Kickoff Sat 10:00 PM CT, at Fresno State
FRES 38% win62% ORST
25Projected
vs
30ProjectedHome
Fresno State Bulldogs
Record 4–3 · #63 in ratings
Away
Oregon State Beavers
Record 5–2 · #24 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 55 vs 83
- Projected
- ORST favored
- Differential
- 4.6 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Fresno State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 10:00 PM CT, at Fresno State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Oregon State by 4.6
- Projected total
- 55.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Fresno State wins by 21+
- 5.1%
- Oregon State wins by 21+
- 14.6%
- Median score
- 24–30
- Model expectation
- 24.9–29.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Fresno State wins, bars on the left are Oregon State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Oregon State 27, Fresno State 2058 games
- Oregon State 24, Fresno State 2057 games
- Fresno State 27, Oregon State 2055 games
- Oregon State 27, Fresno State 2351 games
- Oregon State 31, Fresno State 2751 games
- Oregon State 34, Fresno State 2750 games
Where the edges are
Fresno State offense vs Oregon State defenseOffense -1.8Defense +0.6Edge Oregon State: its defense is 2.3 points better than Fresno State's offense.
Oregon State offense vs Fresno State defenseOffense +7.5Defense +2.4Edge Oregon State: its offense is 5.1 points better than Fresno State's defense.
| Stat | Fresno State | Oregon State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.10 | 0.32 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.04 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.5% | 49.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 40.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.6 | 42.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 23.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.