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Fresno State vs Rice prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FRES 73% win27% RICE
28Projected
vs
19ProjectedNeutral site
Fresno State Bulldogs
Record 4–3 · #63 in ratings
Neutral site
Rice Owls
Record 1–7 · #115 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 55 vs 17
- Projected
- FRES favored
- Differential
- 8.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Fresno State by 8.9
- Projected total
- 46.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Fresno State wins by 21+
- 21.1%
- Rice wins by 21+
- 2.2%
- Median score
- 27–17
- Model expectation
- 27.4–18.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Fresno State wins, bars on the left are Rice wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Fresno State 20, Rice 1769 games
- Fresno State 24, Rice 2063 games
- Fresno State 27, Rice 1063 games
- Fresno State 27, Rice 1763 games
- Fresno State 24, Rice 1062 games
- Fresno State 31, Rice 1759 games
Where the edges are
Fresno State offense vs Rice defenseOffense -1.8Defense -3.3Edge Fresno State: its offense is 1.6 points better than Rice's defense.
Rice offense vs Fresno State defenseOffense -4.8Defense +2.4Edge Fresno State: its defense is 7.2 points better than Rice's offense.
| Stat | Fresno State | Rice | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.10 | 0.03 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.04 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.5% | 40.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 42.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.6 | 21.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 31.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.