Loading the matchup…
Fresno State vs San José State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FRES 71% win30% SJSU
25Projected
vs
18ProjectedNeutral site
Fresno State Bulldogs
Record 4–3 · #63 in ratings
Neutral site
San José State Spartans
Record 4–4 · #112 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 55 vs 19
- Projected
- FRES favored
- Differential
- 7.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Fresno State by 7.7
- Projected total
- 43.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- Fresno State wins by 21+
- 18.3%
- San José State wins by 21+
- 2.6%
- Median score
- 24–17
- Model expectation
- 25.2–17.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Fresno State wins, bars on the left are San José State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Fresno State 17, San José State 1081 games
- Fresno State 20, San José State 1077 games
- Fresno State 27, San José State 1774 games
- Fresno State 24, San José State 1772 games
- San José State 24, Fresno State 2069 games
- Fresno State 24, San José State 1065 games
Where the edges are
Fresno State offense vs San José State defenseOffense -1.8Defense -1.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
San José State offense vs Fresno State defenseOffense -6.2Defense +2.4Edge Fresno State: its defense is 8.6 points better than San José State's offense.
| Stat | Fresno State | San José State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.10 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.04 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.5% | 38.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 42.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.6 | 20.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 22.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.