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Fresno State vs Texas State prediction
Kickoff Sat 3:00 PM CT, at Texas State
FRES 42% win58% TXST
25Projected32If FRES upsets
vs
28Projected21If FRES upsetsAway
Fresno State Bulldogs
Record 4–3 · #63 in ratings
Home
Texas State Bobcats
Record 4–3 · #62 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (43)
Starts at 43, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | FRES | TXST | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 31 | 54 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up42%Fresno State wins on the road
If Fresno State plays at home57% ▲
Fresno State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
Texas State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (San Diego State 29–31)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Fresno State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- TXST 27, FRES 2056 games
- TXST 31, FRES 2756 games
- FRES 24, TXST 2050 games
- TXST 27, FRES 2450 games
- TXST 27, FRES 1749 games
- Power index
- 55 vs 55
- Projected
- TXST favored
- Differential
- 3.2 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Texas State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 3:00 PM CT, at Texas State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas State by 3.2
- Projected total
- 52.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- Fresno State wins by 21+
- 5.4%
- Texas State wins by 21+
- 12.3%
- Median score
- 24–27
- Model expectation
- 24.4–27.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Fresno State wins, bars on the left are Texas State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Fresno State offense vs Texas State defenseOffense -1.8Defense -1.9Even: neither side has a real edge.
Texas State offense vs Fresno State defenseOffense +2.6Defense +2.4Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Fresno State | Texas State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.10 | 0.28 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.04 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.5% | 50.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 44.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.6 | 37.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 30.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
