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Fresno State vs USC prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
FRES 37% win63% USC
25Projected
vs
30ProjectedNeutral site
Fresno State Bulldogs
Record 4–3 · #63 in ratings
Neutral site
USC Trojans
Record 6–2 · #33 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 55 vs 77
- Projected
- USC favored
- Differential
- 5.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- USC by 5.1
- Projected total
- 54.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.3%
- Fresno State wins by 21+
- 4.5%
- USC wins by 21+
- 15.3%
- Median score
- 24–30
- Model expectation
- 24.3–29.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Fresno State wins, bars on the left are USC wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- USC 27, Fresno State 2060 games
- Fresno State 27, USC 2054 games
- USC 34, Fresno State 2753 games
- USC 30, Fresno State 2452 games
- Fresno State 24, USC 2051 games
- USC 31, Fresno State 2050 games
Where the edges are
Fresno State offense vs USC defenseOffense -1.8Defense -0.2Edge USC: its defense is 1.5 points better than Fresno State's offense.
USC offense vs Fresno State defenseOffense +6.1Defense +2.4Edge USC: its offense is 3.6 points better than Fresno State's defense.
| Stat | Fresno State | USC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.10 | 0.25 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.04 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.5% | 51.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 40.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.6 | 32.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 25.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.