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Georgia Southern vs Houston prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
GASO 22% win78% HOU
19Projected
vs
31ProjectedNeutral site
Georgia Southern Eagles
Record 3–4 · #81 in ratings
Neutral site
Houston Cougars
Record 6–2 · #15 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 42 vs 90
- Projected
- HOU favored
- Differential
- 11.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Houston by 11.5
- Projected total
- 50.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 33.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.0%
- Georgia Southern wins by 21+
- 1.6%
- Houston wins by 21+
- 27.2%
- Median score
- 19–30
- Model expectation
- 19.3–30.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Georgia Southern wins, bars on the left are Houston wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Houston 27, Georgia Southern 1766 games
- Houston 20, Georgia Southern 1762 games
- Houston 30, Georgia Southern 2459 games
- Houston 30, Georgia Southern 1059 games
- Houston 24, Georgia Southern 1757 games
- Houston 30, Georgia Southern 1756 games
Where the edges are
Georgia Southern offense vs Houston defenseOffense -1.3Defense +5.2Edge Houston: its defense is 6.5 points better than Georgia Southern's offense.
Houston offense vs Georgia Southern defenseOffense +4.7Defense -0.0Edge Houston: its offense is 4.8 points better than Georgia Southern's defense.
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Houston | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | 0.29 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.5% | 51.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4% | 43.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 36.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0 | 21.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.