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Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
GASO 51% win49% JXST
26.4Projected
vs
26.0ProjectedNeutral site
Georgia Southern Eagles
Record 3–4 · #81 in ratings
Neutral site
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Record 5–2 · #82 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 42 vs 41
- Projected
- Pick'em
- Differential
- 0.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Pick'em
- Projected total
- 52.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.3%
- Went to overtime
- 4.2%
- Georgia Southern wins by 21+
- 9.4%
- Jacksonville State wins by 21+
- 8.2%
- Median score
- 26–26
- Model expectation
- 26.2–25.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Georgia Southern wins, bars on the left are Jacksonville State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Georgia Southern 27, Jacksonville State 2061 games
- Jacksonville State 24, Georgia Southern 2056 games
- Georgia Southern 24, Jacksonville State 2055 games
- Georgia Southern 27, Jacksonville State 1753 games
- Jacksonville State 34, Georgia Southern 3052 games
- Jacksonville State 31, Georgia Southern 2752 games
Where the edges are
Georgia Southern offense vs Jacksonville State defenseOffense -1.3Defense -1.7Even: neither side has a real edge.
Jacksonville State offense vs Georgia Southern defenseOffense -0.2Defense -0.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Jacksonville State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.5% | 47.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4% | 42.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 27.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0 | 22.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.